Most coastal condo markets in South Florida are experiencing a downturn due to rising inventory and shrinking demand, with sellers scrambling to sell their units even as prices plunge—with the exception of Miami.
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"While recent sales reflect short-term headwinds, the broader trend highlights underlying drivers of value and strong fundamentals that cannot be overlooked when evaluating the market."
Florida Condo Crisis Explained
The condo market is suffering a downturn at the national level, with the
median U.S. condo sale price falling 2.2 percent year-over-year in May,
according to a new Redfin report, to $354,100. It was the second largest
drop in records dating back to 2012.
Florida is the epicenter of this condo slump, with prices and sales down by
more than 30 percent in parts of the state.
All across the country, condo prices are falling because there are roughly
80 percent more condo sellers than buyers in the market. In Florida, this
imbalance has been made much more pronounced by the sheer numbers of condo
owners who are trying to sell to avoid growing homeowners association (HOA)
fees and rising costs related to stricter building safety legislation and
higher home insurance premiums.
The deadly collapse of the Champlain Towers South condo in Surfside in June
2021 led to a new law in the Sunshine State, which requires aging condos in
the state to undergo structural inspections and shore up reserves necessary
for repairs and maintenance. The impact of the new regulations has been
dramatic, leading to a surge in listings across the state and rising HOA
fees.
As a result of growing inventory and buyers' reluctance to invest in a
property that might end up costing them more than they can afford, condo
prices have been plunging in many Florida cities. In May, the median condo
sale price was down by 32.2 percent year-over-year in Deltona, by 19 percent
in Tampa, by 15.9 percent in Cape Coral, by 15.5 percent in North Port, and
by 11.4 percent in Naples and Orlando.
While Governor Ron DeSantis has recently signed a bill reforming the new law
to offer some relief to struggling associations and condo owners, its impact
is still to be felt on the market.
The Miami Exception
There is a reason why Miami is called the Magic City, and that is because of
the massive growth the so-called garden of America has experienced since its
establishment as a small settlement in the late 19th century. Over the past
decades, Miami has become a vibrant metropolis attracting Americans from all
over the country, and the crypto revolution currently taking place in the
city is now helping it turn into a global tech destination.
The city's success is reflected in its home price appreciation. Between May
2015 and May 2025 alone, as per MIAMI Association of Realtors data, condo
prices in Miami rose by over 103 percent, from $209,000 to $425,000.
Overall, Miami's home equity gains on single-family homes have been nearly
two times the national figure.
While price growth has flattened year-over-year in May in the Magic City, it
has not reversed in the same way it is happening in many coastal markets
around it, proving that Miami has been shielded by the worst of Florida's
ongoing condo crisis.
"No other U.S. market can boast the long-term resiliency of the Miami condo
market," MIAMI Association of Realtors Chairman Eddie Blanco said in a press
release shared with Newsweek.
"Hurricanes, recessions, pandemics, decades of lack of condo financing—it
doesn't matter. People from all over the world want a piece of the Miami
lifestyle, and that will never change. Condos are the entry point for
first-time homebuyers in our market. Condos are the top property purchased
by our global buyers from 49 countries."
But it is not only because of the city's allure that its condo market has
proven more resilient than others in the state.
The number of condos for sale in the Miami-Dade market has increased in
recent months, same as in the rest of the state, and was up by a staggering
39.51 percent year-over-year in May, from 9,456 to 13,192 listings during
the same period in 2024.
But, according to the latest data, inventory was still 16.9 percent below
pre-pandemic levels, and new listings were down by 3.4 percent
year-over-year—meaning that while buyers are getting more options, sellers
are in no rush to offload their properties or slash prices.
Unavoidable Headwinds
Despite the resilience of condo prices in Miami, the city's market is still
facing the same challenges the rest of the state is struggling with.
Miami-Dade County total sales fell by 20.2 percent year-over-year in May, as
buyers keep to the sidelines amid elevated mortgage rates, growing economic
uncertainty, and still sky-high prices.
Total existing condo sales decreased 25.1 percent in the same time frame.
Statewide, closed sales of existing condos-townhouses totaled 8,345 in May,
down 19.9 percent from a year earlier.
But data show that buyers are showing up for affordable inventory: sales of
condos priced between $100,000 to $150,000 increased 38 percent
year-over-year in May in Miami.
"Sales have remained weak with mortgage rates hovering at near 7 percent,"
Cororaton said. "The good news is that affordability conditions are on
course to improve with the Fed expected to resume its rate cuts in the
second half of the year."